1. Over the long
term, stocks have historically outperformed all
other investments.
From 1926 to 2001,
the stock market returned an average annual 10.7
percent gain. The next best performing asset class,
bonds, returned 5.3 percent.
2. Over the
short term, stocks can be hazardous to your
financial health.
If you thought the
Dow's 554-point drop on Oct. 28, 1997 was rough,
consider the 508-point drop 10 years earlier, on
Oct. 19, 1987. The 1997 decline was a mere 7.2
percent, while the 1987 crash -- the worst one-day
drop in stock market history -- chopped 22.6 percent
off the value of stocks. More recently, the shocks
have been prolonged and painful: If you had invested
in a Nasdaq index fund around the time of the
market's peak in March 2000, you would have lost
three-fourths of your money over the next three
years.
3. Risky
investments generally pay more than safe ones
(except when they fail).
Investors demand a
higher rate of return for taking greater risks.
That's one reason that stocks, which are perceived
as riskier than bonds, tend to return more than
bonds. It also explains why long-term bonds pay more
than short-term bonds. The longer investors have to
wait for their final payoff on the bond, the greater
the chance that something will intervene to erode
the investment's value.
4. The biggest
single determiner of stock prices is earnings.
Over the short
term, stock prices fluctuate based on everything
from interest rates to investor sentiment to the
weather. But over the long term, what matters are
earnings. If a stock's earnings rise substantially
over the course of 10 years, so will its share
price.
5. A bad year
for bonds looks like a day at the beach for stocks.
In 1994, the worst
year for bonds in recent history, intermediate-term
Treasury securities fell just 1.8 percent, and the
following year they bounced back 14.4 percent. By
comparison, in the 1973-74 crash, the Dow Jones
industrial average fell 44 percent. It didn't return
to its old highs for more than three years or push
significantly above the old highs for more than 10
years! (In the current down market, it's anyone's
guess if battered technology stocks will ever
recover to their bubble-era highs.)
6. Rising
interest rates are bad for bonds.
When interest rates
go up, bond prices fall. Why? Because bond buyers
won't pay as much for an existing bond with a fixed
interest rate of 5 percent as they will for a new
one that is paying, say, 6 percent or more.
Conversely, when interest rates fall, bond prices go
up in lockstep fashion. And the effect is strongest
on bonds with the longest term, or time to maturity.
That is, long-term bonds get hit harder than
short-term bonds when rates climb, and gain the most
when rates fall.
7. Inflation may
be the biggest threat to your long-term investments.
While a stock
market crash can knock the stuffing out of your
stock investments, so far -- knock wood -- the
market has always bounced back and eventually gone
on to new heights. However, inflation, which has
historically stripped 3.2 percent a year off the
value of your money, rarely gives back what it takes
away. That's why it's important to put your
retirement investments where they'll earn the
highest long-term returns.
8. U.S. Treasury
bonds are as close to a sure thing as an investor
can get.
The conventional
wisdom is that the U.S. Government is unlikely ever
to default on its bonds -- partly because the
American economy has historically been fairly strong
and partly because the government can always print
more money to pay them off if need be. As a result,
the interest rate of Treasuries is considered a
risk-free rate, and the yield of every other kind of
fixed-income investment is higher in proportion to
how much more risky that investment is perceived to
be. Of course, your return on Treasuries will suffer
if interest rates rise, just like all other kinds of
bonds.
9. A diversified
portfolio is less risky than a portfolio that is
concentrated in one or a few investments.
Diversifying --
that is, spreading your money among a number of
different types of investments -- lessens your risk
because even if some of your holdings go down,
others may go up (or at least not go down as much).
On the flip side, a diversified portfolio is
unlikely to outperform the market by a big margin
for exactly the same reason.
10. Index mutual
funds often outperform actively managed funds.
In an index fund,
the manager sets up his portfolio to mirror a market
index -- such as Standard & Poor's 500-stock index
-- rather than actively picking which stocks to
purchase. And average is often enough to beat the
majority of competitors among actively managed
funds. One reason: Few actively managed funds can
consistently outperform the market by enough to
cover the cost of their generally higher trading
fees